Surprise: Kamala Takes Lead In IOWA Poll
Like I’ve been saying: Landslide. And like that nonexistent “red wave” that everyone expected in 2022, the 2024 polls have been wrong for months now, but this one out of Iowa looks to be more in line with what’s going to happen on Tuesday. And no, this isn’t some fringe poll. Selzer & Co is a respected pollster that’s been around for over 30 years. Via DesMoines Register:
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Thanks to women voters showing up in response to Trump’s abortion ban and thanks to the surge in young/first time voters (few of whom are being polled) who don’t want a literal dementia patient for president, Kamala will clear 300 electoral votes and be declared the winner by Wednesday morning. Watching Florida turn blue will be the most fun, and it’ll happen early Tuesday night, too, as the state is known for counting its votes quickly.
ADDED:
A good discussion on the Selzer poll and why so much of the polling for the last few months has likely been wrong:
