Livestream From Oscars Red Carpet
It’s just after 1 p.m. here in L.A., so depending on when you’re reading this, people may or may not be walking the Oscars red carpet yet. I expect we’ll start seeing familiar faces around 2 p.m., since the show starts at 4 p.m.. If you’re reading this after 5 p.m., the video player may not show anything, but maybe it’ll convert to what it recorded earlier.
Below are my predictions for who will win (and who should win) in most of the major categories.
Actor in a Leading Role
Will win: Wagner Moura
Should win: Wagner Moura
I’m going out on a limb here, but I do believe Timmy and Michael B. Jordan split the votes.
Actress in a Leading Role
Will win: Jessie Buckley
Should win: Rose Byrne
The most boring Best Actress race in years.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win: Amy Madigan
Should win: Inga Ibsdotter
Madigan deserves her win and I won’t be disappointed, as Aunt Gladys was iconic. But, if you saw Sentimental Value, you know that Inga stole the movie with that last heartbreaking scene she had with her sister.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win: Stellan Skarsgård
Should win: Stellan Skarsgård
Everyone’s picking Sean Penn here, but I don’t think they’re gonna give a third Oscar to someone who had been expected to not even come to the show. The entire cast of Sentimental Value was nominated (not to mention its other noms for Picture, Director, Screenplay, etc.), and I can’t see it not winning anything. This will be its one prize, and it’s well-deserved.
Best Casting
Will win: Sinners
Should win: Marty Supreme
Every single person—from the hundreds of extras to the main cast members—in Marty Supreme looked like they really belonged in 1950’s New York. Plus, they had Sandra Bernhard, Tyler the Creator, Abel Ferrara, Isaac Mizrahi, Fran Drescher, and more in small roles.
Documentary Feature Film
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Should win: Come See Me In The Good Light
International Feature Film
Will win: The Secret Agent
Should win: The Secret Agent
Directing
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson
PTA should’ve won for There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Magnolia, and Boogie Nights, so this is one of those “career” Oscars.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will win: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Should win: Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Should win: Will Tracy, Bugonia
I didn’t love Bugonia, but it’s the one movie that really had me guessing till the end, and I was quite surprised with how it turned out.
Best Picture
Will win: One Battle After Another
Should win: The Secret Agent
Some think Sinners could win, and while it’s possible, you can’t ignore all the precursor wins for OBAA. I re-watched both movies, and while they each have outstanding moments and some of the most brilliant filmmaking I’ve ever seen (the car chase in OBAA, the music/dance scene in Sinners), they’re both similar in that their stories are weak, if not incoherent. OBAA starts as a political thriller about revolutionaries, and then it turns into a father/daughter comedy that satirizes the revolutionaries and white supremacists (the Christmas Adventurers Club!) it had been seriously examining in the first half. It’s like, am I supposed to care? The first half of Sinners was a captivating depiction of the Jim Crow south with rich characters, great music, and beautiful scenery, but once they get to the big vampire fight, there’s zero tension and no real stakes. I suddenly didn’t care about anyone. The Secret Agent is far superior in terms of storytelling and cohesiveness with the most timely and timeless message of all the nominees, and it would have my vote.
My ranking of the Best Picture noms (note that I didn’t and will never see F1, Frankenstein, or Hamnet):
