Here’s Who’s Winning At The 97th Academy Awards On Sunday
My predictions, as well as who I want to win, are below. A bit of Anora is in the clip above, and while it doesn’t really spoil the movie, I wouldn’t watch it if you haven’t seen the movie and still plan on seeing it. For those who have seen it, the clip is a good reminder of how great the movie is, and how it so masterfully takes you on such an adventure full of so many emotions for 2 hours and 15 minutes. I think Academy voters often vote for the movie that made them “feel” the best, or at least the movie that entertained them the most, and no movie in 2024 did both for me more than Anora. So, with that said…
Best Picture
Will win: Anora
Should win: Anora
Could upset: Conclave
Doesn’t stand a chance in hell: Emilia Pérez
Best Actor
Will win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Should win: Ralph Fiennes
Could upset: Adrien Brody
Doesn’t stand a chance in hell: Sebastian Stan
The Academy has an orgasm anytime anyone does a fucking biopic, so it looks like Timmy will become the youngest Best Actor winner ever come Sunday. Let’s just hope he doesn’t deliver another cringe-inducing speech like he did at the SAGs. If it were up to me, however, they would give Fiennes the Oscar. He’s been consistently great for 30 years (he should’ve won for Schindler’s List in 1994), and he was gripping as the moral conscience that held Conclave together.
Best Actress
Will win: Demi Moore
Should win: Demi Moore
Could easily upset: Mikey Madison
Doesn’t stand a chance in hell: Karla Sofía Gascón
I could see this going either way between Demi and Mikey, but Demi has the edge because she’s so well-liked in Hollywood and has been doing this for so long.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Zoe Saldana
Should win: Margaret Qualley (who wasn’t nominated)
Supporting Actress is often my favorite category, but this year it’s a total bust. It’d be awesome if the iconic (but undeserving—she had like three lines of dialogue in Conclave) Isabella Rossellini pulled out a win, but once something has been locked for as long as this has, there’s no way it’ll go any other way.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Should win: Yura Borisov
Culkin is even more of a lock than Saldana, so there’s zero chance anyone else wins this. This is perhaps the biggest example of category fraud I’ve seen at the Oscars, given that Culkin, whom I like, plays a lead role in A Real Pain and is on screen with just as much dialogue (if not more) as Jesse Eisenberg. But, the studios campaign and submit their nominees in the categories they feel they have the best shot at winning, and in the case of Culkin as “supporting” in A Real Pain, brain dead Academy voters went along with it. The best part of Anora, aside from Madison, was Yura Borisov’s “Igor” (who was truly in a supporting role), who was instrumental in the emotional impact of the movie’s ending.
Best Director
Will win: Sean Baker, Anora
Should win: Sean Baker
Could upset: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Despite 10 nominations, The Brutalist is dead in the water, and it’s looking like it might walk away with nothing on Sunday night. But, if there’s one thing it could win, it might be this. Then again, I doubt most voters sat though all three and a half hours of this snoozefest. I got bored after 45 minutes and turned it off. Baker pulled off a high-wire act balancing a whirlwind romance, a screwball action-adventure-comedy, and an emotional character-driven drama, and while you never knew what was going to happen next, you knew that Baker was in control of everything.
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Conclave
Should win: Conclave
Doesn’t stand a chance in hell: Dune 2
This should be the one lock for Conclave, deservedly so. I’ve heard that even people who read the book (and presumably already knew about all the twists) were on the edge of their seats throughout the film.
Original Screenplay
Will win: A Real Pain
Should win: The Substance
Could upset: Anora
A Real Pain could win because of all the dialogue, The Substance could win for having the best story, and Anora could win for having the perfect mix of both. If voters went all-in for Anora, it might win here, but they might want to award Jesse Eisenberg for pulling triple duty as actor, director, and writer of A Real Pain. I would prefer The Substance, since it’s truly the most original screenplay of all.
The Oscars start at 4pm on Sunday, and here’s a montage of the Best Picture noms:
